Excel Currencies Blog

Volatile week expected on the market with a flurry of important economic releases.. 

It was roles reversed last week in that £-€ was rather stagnant over the period, whereas £-$ fell by 1%. This was due to better than expected UK PMI data and worse than expected EU PMI data, whilst the US had an overall strong economic week.

Once again, the UK has only one major release and it's arguably the biggest one on the calendar in interest rates. The 'higher for longer' rhetoric will need to be confirmed in how the MPC members vote and so Thursday represents a mini-risk event for the Pound.

Mortgage approvals came in less than forecast earlier today and we expect to see the Nationwide house prices data to be weak too. All-in-all, Sterling is set to remain under pressure for the forseeable. 


EUR
The € ends the month with a heap of European economic data, that have the ability to really get things moving in the market. The week has started well after Spanish inflation came down and German GDP was better than the consensus. The latter releases its own inflation number this afternoon, so expect more movement before the day is out.

Tomorrow's Euro-Zone inflation & GDP numbers are key market movers and therefore mini-risk events in their own right, so we are in for a busy morning. The jobs data to start the new month (Thursday/Friday) also represent potentially volatility in the market. 


USD
The US offers something of note each day this week and so the Dollar will be looking to extend its gains in the market. Confidence figures, PMI data, jobs releases and a Fed interest rate decision is an exciting mix and makes this week a very interesting one to follow.