Excel Currencies Blog

Last week, money markets bridged the gap to economist views that the UK will lower interest rates in August. Markets now show a 65% chance of a BoE rate cut, compared to a 99% chance from economists. The question now is whether or not GBP is currently priced in for one? We think not..

The usually volatile GBP v USD is currently trading at a 5-week low (but only just) with rather minimal movement in the pair during this time (1.5%). In contrast, the GBP v EUR has been far busier and has seen a swing of nearly 2%, in half the time. Both remain very favourable in their own right for Sterling sellers. 

The UK offers nothing on the economic calendar this week and so will play the 'sitting duck' role. With not much happening elsewhere either, it won't be alone. The only thing that could realistically bring some volatility is with it being the month and quarter end, where traders could open and and close positions, which may result in some market movement. 



EUR
French political news seems to have calmed down a bit for now, which has given some much needed respite to the single currency. The Euro is still down 1% versus the USD & 0.6% down against the Pound in the last month. This week sees some confidence figures and inflation data, but nothing is expected to provide a spark. 

USD
We may see GBP v USD continue its slow decline this week, but Friday's PPI data may change things. The US stock market is having a moment which is boosting the Dollar currently, as international capital is flowing into US equities.