Excel Currencies Blog

UK labour market cools slightly in March..

So far, the week is panning out as analysts had predicted with not much movement from the Pound at all. -0.2% has been lost so far this week across the board, but this is standard volatility and to be expected. The small drop in value comes after USD strength due to a bit of a stock retreat as-well-as the latest jobs and wage data out of the UK.

The latter was released yesterday and has been made a fuss out of by a small minority in the market who believe the figures are enough to change the BoE rate policy. We don't think so and feel the outcome was a non-event this time round. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% with average earnings rising from 6.6% to 6.8%. Money markets still have a UK interest rate hike for next month at 70%.

Traders are monitoring closely the goings-on with the US debt ceiling stalemate and yesterday was the first time we saw some market reaction. European stocks retreated and the USD gained some value after a bout of nerves when the MSM announced US President Biden will return to the States straight after the G7 summit instead of previous arrangements elsewhere. 

Every so often, US Congress votes to raise or suspend the ceiling so the country can borrow more. Reaching the debt ceiling would mean Government is unable to borrow any more money. Meaning salaries of federal and military employees would stop, as-well of course pension payments. A default would be a first in US history, which currently stands at $31.4 trillion..