Excel Currencies Blog

The Pound has recovered 0.5% from last week's sell-off, but the trading environment remains hypersensitive and the week ahead doesn't help matters. Both GBP v EUR & GBP v USD are currently down by 2% in the last month and that will no doubt change by week-end. 

The UK has a busy schedule ahead with jobs, inflation, GDP and retail sales all being released and all have the capability of moving Sterling. The most favourable combination would be to see a labour resilience, a steady inflation print, a higher economic push and better than last retail sales figures. The reverse would see the Pound sink.

'Higher rates for longer' are still expected in the UK, but it's not just the BoE and the UK that makes that decision. Global risk sentiment and the US arguably have a stronger input into what happens with interest rates here.

A tricky week to navigate for anyone with exchanges in the pipeline..



EUR
It's another quiet week ahead for the Euro-Zone with GDP the only thing of much note. It means the single currency will once again be moved by events elsewhere, a situation it is very much comfortable with..



USD
The Fed haven't flinched since global stocks fell as many had predicted they would. This week's US data could aid in their decision to not cut interest rates just yet too..

There is plenty coming out of the US this week to keep a close eye on, including the latest US election pools. According to one poll, Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump (52% v 45%). This would be good news for global investors due to the parties predictability and would overall weaken the USD both near and long term.