Excel Currencies Blog

UK GDP 0.6% higher in Q3 2023 versus Q3 2022, but flat-lining now on its way..

The Pound found little comfort in the GDP release today, but at least the numbers were slightly better than forecast. A 0% growth rate for Q3 is certainly nothing to get excited about. But, at least it wasn't recession territory, which would knock confidence completely out of the economy and Sterling. 

A rebound in UK construction and manufacturing in September, meant the month grew by 0.2%, rather than the 0% forecast. Real estate activity is still weighing heavy on growth at the moment and looks set to continue for the foreseeable. The overall services picture is stagnant, but not weakening as yet.  

More importantly to the market, Fed Chair Powell gave a stern speech yesterday on inflation and interest rates over in the US, which saw the Pound fall by 0.5%. Powell was in no mood to entertain any consideration for interest rate cuts and instead, suggested inflation is still not under control and that interest rates may have to hike again.

GBP is set to end the week 1% lower versus the EUR and 2% down against the USD..