Excel Currencies Blog

Financial markets face a 'Super Friday' to round-off the month.. 

Overall it was a positive week for the UK/£ with mixed data, that ended up doing more good than harm. Yes inflation ticked unexpectedly higher (good news for Sterling, bad news for the UK) and retail sales were down, but the PMI data was stronger than expected

It allowed the Pound to have a rather consistent week, barely veering off current ranges, which is a rarity in this market. Retail sales were down for March, as consumers grapple with the cost of living due to high inflation as-well-as poor conditions due to the weather (something to monitor next month).

But the PMI's grew for the 3rd month in a row and produced the strongest reading since April last year, much to the surprise of many. As recession forecasts are slowly dissipating, consumer confidence is rising and last month the survey rose to its highest number since February 2022.

Onto this week and how the Pound will perform will come from matters outside of its control. All the important data comes from elsewhere and so it's a 50-50 call on which way GBP will move..


EUR
The Euro-Zone produced strong figures too last week for the PMI's, especially in the services sector which breezed past expectations and past results. Business activity growth hit an 11-month high and it means the ECB can continue to raise interest rates at the current pace if they wish to do so with the economy rallying back in such strong fashion.

The Euro-Zone releases many key data this week and most of which is expected to show a positive reading. The crucial day this week is on Friday, where the Bloc announces 7 important numbers. A risk event for anyone with exchanges in the pipeline..


USD
After a quiet data week last week, the US produce daily readings this week that will be of note to everyone in the markets. The forecasts aren't looking so positive and so cable (£-$) could be in for a run. Inflation, GDP and a debt ceiling debacle all contribute to an entertaining week ahead..