Excel Currencies Blog

Sterling set to end the week how it started..

The Pound has managed to claw back over 1% in the last 24-hours, after falling the same just 48-hours previous. As expected, the UK this morning produced a growth number for January's GDP figure. The outcome of 0.3% was better than the 0.1% consensus and handsomely beat December's -0.5%. 

It means the UK is continuing its track record of beating recession calls and the prospect of one happening now in Q1 is slim at best. Economists now seem split in their views as to when (even if in some cases) the UK will fall into a technical recession. But instead of being pulled into the discussions of the growth number overall being totally rubbish (which is what the MSM will promote), let's focus on the positives here..

The BoE said back in October last year that the UK was 'likely to already be in a recession' and predicted 18-months of a downturn. 6-months later, this has yet to happen.. There are some analysts now who think this may not happen at all and many more who expect a tough H2 and not H1 in terms of growth. In comparison, 100% of the calls at the back-end of last year was that the UK was in for a prolonged negative territory period.

Yes, the growth figures are terrible in comparison to other nations. But, that's not the story that should be peddled. Instead, the focus should be on the country was expected to be this much in the red and for this long, yet, it has somehow remained in the black thus far (which is great news)..

The growth numbers seen recently means that the UK Budget next week could provide more good news for the Pound. With a lot more money available, Chancellor Hunt should be delivering positive news for consumers and businesses alike. This will aid in investment and spending as-well-as the all-important GDP number for the months ahead.