Excel Currencies Blog

As we mentioned this time last week, Sterling found itself in overbought territory and a correction was therefore the most likely scenario. This has now played out with £-€ falling 0.5% from its recent high and £-$ dropping 0.8% in the same time-frame. 

Still, the Pound trades very favourably across the board and the outlook both near & long term looks overall positive. Sterling was also impacted last week by investor sentiment and a fall in the stock market, both of which may plague GBP again this week.

Growing fears of a China-US trade war, a Trump presidential victory, a major global IT failure, a CHAPS banking issue and a poor UK retail sales result have all played their part in devaluing the Pound of late. A stock market sell-off was one of the results of investor sentiment turning sour because of said events.

The only thing of economic note for the UK this week is the PMI's. A steady result is expected which could provide a small boost for the Pound in a week that will see it being moved by events elsewhere.


EUR

The ECB interest rate decision and following press conference were as expected non-events for financial markets. Data will set the stage for a September decision and there is a long time until we reach that point. This takes a headwind off of the Euro for a moment which may benefit the single currency.


USD
The Dollar rallied last week because of its safe-haven status in the midst of various things going 'wrong' in the world. President Biden's decision to step down over the weekend could provide some USD weakness though between now and election day if Trumps odds of success start to shrink. 

This week, the US offers the most important economic releases with PMI, jobs, GDP & inflation all being released.